03.21.07

March Madness in Vegas on 20 Bucks a Day

Posted in Life, Sports, The Diesel at 11:57 pm by Diesel The

So after 4 days of utter madness, we’re down to the final 16 teams in the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Okay, so really it was only one day of madness and three days of “eh.” But being that that one day of madness was also St. Patrick’s Day, I think all can be forgiven. As Billy Bob “Bad Santa” Thornton said to Thurman Murman upon getting an aspirin in his Advent calendar, “They can’t all be winners, kid.”

So now we arrive at the Sweet 16. I’m happy because my beloved Buckeyes made it through that one day of madness to find themselves in a rematch with Tennessee on Thursday. I’m even happier because I’ll be watching with Joe Cat and my brother, as well as some other friends in Vegas.

I was in Vegas once before during March Madness and I made a bundle by taking Xavier and the points. And by bundle, I mean $36.50. Now, the coach of that team, Thad Matta is roaming the sidelines for the Buckeyes. Coincidence? Well, yeah. That weekend I was also hanging with Joe Cat as well as with JD. Unfortunately, JD can’t make it this year, so, in order for him to join in on the fun, he deposited $35 in my bank account earlier today. And since you, dear readers, also can’t make it, we’re going to keep you up to date on all our gambling action, as it happens. Well, not really. But we’ll get back to you on Monday (ish).

And please, keep in mind that every dollar I’m betting needs to be back in my bank account by March 28 to cover some bills. So I could really use a win here.

Here’s the plan:

First, JD and I are putting $10 on red at the very first roulette table we come to, Entourage-style, to find out what kind of weekend it’s going to be.

Second, it’s game time. We each are putting in $30 to bet on the games. I’m not arriving until Thursday night (just in time to watch the Buckeyes, natch) so we’ve got three days of Madness to gamble on. There’s your 20 bucks a day. I’ve added the current lines from Caesar’s sports book below for Friday’s games.

Mar. 23 Vanderbilt +7½
4:25 p.m. at Georgetown 131o/u

Mar. 23 Southern Cal +8½
6:55 p.m. at N. Carolina 150½o/u

Mar. 23 UNLV +2½
6:40 p.m. at Oregon 139½o/u

Mar. 23 Butler +10½
4:10 p.m. at Florida 124o/u

JD and I are both novices at sports gambling, so we’re going to stay away from the over/unders and stick to picking winners. Plus, math is for nerds. The first thing we’re really concerned about is falling into the trap of betting from the heart and not the head. We each bring our own bias to the table with each team, which is what the casinos count on.

The general perception of each school helps set the point spreads. Butler and Vanderbilt are small schools that have never won before, whereas Florida just won the whole thing last year and Georgetown went to a ton of Final Fours back in the day. UNLV was ridiculously good back in the early 90s with Jerry Tarkanian as their coach. Of course, they also cheated like crazy and got caught, which is why they disappeared for nearly 20 years. Oregon and Southern Cal are both Pac 10 schools not named UCLA, so most people think they probably aren’t any good. And North Carolina is arguably the greatest program in the history of college basketball (with apologies to John Wooden).

So those are the general perceptions of these teams going in, putting aside completely the play of the current teams. So let’s talk about that. I think it’s best to pay little attention to the first round games as most of these teams were big favorites. Vanderbilt is an overachieving team that needed OT to get by #3 Washington St. Their season is already a success just by getting to the Sweet 16. (Side note: Vandy beat George Washington in the 1st round and Washington St. in the 2nd round. Now they’re playing Georgetown — located in Washington D.C. This is quite the coincidence. Apparently King George III is Vandy’s coach and Benedict Arnold is their sixth man.) Georgetown has been the trendy pick to win it all by everyone not picking Florida (bastards). They played well against a tough Boston College team and, so far, there is little reason to doubt them. And, by the way, Georgetown was named after it’s founders and not after George Washington, as is the popular misconception. Lucky for them, otherwise Vanderbilt would be a lock.

USC had a tough draw against #4 Texas and future NBA star Kevin Durant. Texas was another trendy pick to make the Final Four and SC made them their bitch. North Carolina has been a top 10 team all year and put away a scrappy Michigan State team in the 2nd round. Even better, future NBA stiff Tyler Hansbrough has been a man on a mission since taking off the mask protecting his broken nose.

UNLV is the lowest seed left and has beaten the highest seed so far in #2 Wisconsin. Many think they should have been seeded higher. Oregon nearly lost to Miami (Ohio) in the first round and, while they played better against Winthrop, still could have lost that game.

Butler was a trendy pick to be upset by Old Dominion in the first round, then they went on to knock off Maryland. Still, they shot under 50% and were out rebounded in both games. Not good signs. Florida, again, the most popular choice to win it all, really did not play well against Purdue. Plus, if you listen to JD, they had a ton of calls go their way. Just sayin.’

Which brings me to the last criteria – personal bias. Now this is where the irrational comes into play. By far, the biggest bias JD and I have for or against any team in this field (and I think I’m very safe to include JD in this) is our massive hatred of immigrants, er, Florida. I hate them, I hate them, I hate them. Nearly as much as I hated the Miami Vice movie (beyond horrendously gouge-my-eyes-out awful). Joakim Noah is hugely overrated. He’s the French Anderson Varajeo. Little skill, but an “energy guy.” Whoever picks him in the top 5 in the NBA draft is going to regret it. But, of course, it’s not the players or anyone specifically that I hate on the team or at the school, but the overall attitude and smugness. And, oh yeah, the complete lack of sportsmanship at the BCS National Championship Game by their fans. And yes, also, much of this bitterness comes from the Ohio State basketball loss to Florida in December as well as that football loss in January. I’m still not over it and I don’t want to talk about it.

As for the other teams, well, I kind of have a soft spot for Vanderbilt because a friend of mine went there and they just tend to be awful in everything. They’re like the retarded little brother of the SEC. And you know the SEC treats their retarded siblings about as well as Borat: “Why you call police? The retard escape?” So yeah, I feel bad for them and have been really happy to see them have some moderate football, and now, basketball success.

I actually almost went to Georgetown. I’m a big fan of the school and campus. However, I never did care much for their basketball teams. I guess I’m mostly indifferent.

I did end up going to USC for graduate school. Yet, I’m still a Buckeye fan. As a Big Ten guy, I do still carry a certain disdain for the Pac 10. I think I’m indifferent yet again. Wait, OJ went to USC. Ah, man.

North Carolina presents an interesting case. I tend to resent their continued success, but I liked Dean Smith and I tend to dislike Duke. So I guess I’m slightly pro UNC. I know JD is a big fan (2nd to the Buckeyes, of course).

I definitely have a bias against UNLV. I hated those Tarkanian, Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon teams of the 90s. I was only 10 and I knew they were cheaters. On the superstitious side, it may not be good to bet against Vegas in Vegas.

I have absolutely no feelings for or against Oregon. Maybe that Pac 10 thing, but that’s it. Aren’t they owned by Nike?

I never even knew Butler was in Indiana until about a week ago, yet I still have them in the Elite 8 in one of my brackets. I guess I like that they’re a small, underdog type school that is having a really great season. That said, if Florida was playing the Washington Generals, I’d have to think long and hard about who to bet on.

So after all that, the only thing we’re really sure of is that we must bet against Florida, even if it probably is a sucker bet. So Friday we’ll put $20 on Butler +10½ straight up. That’s just too many points and too much hatred to ignore. Next, we’ll throw $10 on a 3 team parlay. Can Vandy stay within 7½ of Georgetown? Can USC stay within 8½ of UNC? And can Oregon beat UNLV by more than 2½? In short, and after all that, I still don’t know. With point spreads, it’s all 50/50 anyway. That’s how the casinos make money. JD? Thoughts?

Best case scenario, we win about $20 on the Butler game, which basically pays 2-1 (with the casino taking their cut). A 3-team parlay pays 6-1, so we could add $60 onto that $10. So doing the math, carry the 1, we’d have made $130 on our $30 investment, plus $30 more we brought to play with.

So, after losing all our bets on Friday’s games, we’ll have $30 left to bet on the four Elite 8 games. We can try a couple of 2 team parlays (pays 13-5) or one 4 team parlay (pays 11-1). Or just say eff it and throw it all on 25 at the roulette table. Why 25? Mark Price? Hello?

So best case scenario, we put $30 at 11-1 and have everything go our way, we walk out with $330. Which gives us a grand total of $460. Subtract our $60 initial investment, and we’ve made $400 in 3 days of watching basketball.

It’s just that easy. Isn’t it?

Check back on Tuesday to see how we did.

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